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Greater Phoenix Real Estate Market Update

PhoenixMarketUpdateLogo

Updated

Nov. 18, 2018

What is happening now in the Greater Phoenix real estate market?  We have seen our market in a recession and we have seen it booming with sellers getting many offers within the first hours of their home going on the market.

Before getting to the good stuff, anyone in this market must also look on their own at the latest economic data and trends to decide if this is a good time to buy/sell.  

Today, Greater Phoenix has gone from a sellers market to a "slight" sellers market.  The market has slowed and the number of listings we are seeing with price decreases and offering incentives has been increasing.  The October year-over-year sales volume was down 1.2% (last time we saw that was Aug 2013).  The real question, is this is a temporary blip in the market or a sign of a longer trend that changes the market.  It is too early to say, but we do know that the increase in interest rates along with the increase in home prices have priced some buyers out of the market.  Inventory for sale was up, but the number of contracts for sale were down.  There are still about 222 people per day moving into Maricopa County, so the Phoenix Market continues to grow.  The local Cromford report indicated that they feel the market is moving from a sellers market to a more "neutral" market, but they even say it is too early to tell.  Data below from ARMLS unless otherwise specified.

 

How long did they take to sell?

  • 63 days in March 2018
  • 61  days in Oct 2018

Average Sales Price in October 2018:  $324,300 (median was $262,000)

Inventory, see the charts below from our Arizona Regional MLS showing pricing changes, it continues to go up at the moment, but pricing is a lagging indicator.

2018_Oct_MLS Stats1

Our "selling season", that is the peak time for home sales is Jan through May of each year (contracts signed).  I judge how hot our market is on the peak season, and the amount of contracts that get multiple offers.  The amount of multiple offers in the last few "selling seasons" (Jan - May) by percentage is increasing each year.  The real question is what will the 2019 "Selling Season" bring, with the Phoenix Market slowing?

MultOffersGraph_SellingSeason

Prices on those multiple offers in 2018 were NOT on the more expensive homes!  There were only a few in bidding wars over $500,000.

Greater Phoenix Market Stats by selected cities:

City of Phoenix Market Stats

2018_Oct_PHX

City of Phoenix ONLY market data from ARMLS

Paradise Valley Stats

2018_Oct_PV

Town of Paradise Valley ONLY market data from ARMLS

City of Scottsdale Stats

2018_Oct_SCOTTS

City of Scottsdale ONLY market data from ARMLS

City of Tempe Stats

2018_Oct_TEMPE

City of Tempe ONLY market data from ARMLS

Other cities in Greater Phoenix...we can get you that data in about 5 minutes!

New Construction

architect-architecture-blueprint-271667

There are now 4 more subdivisions under construction than 6 months ago, for a total of 583.

There are now 217 less "spec" homes (homes available for quick move-ins) than 6 months ago, for a total of 2,045.